Here are my latest updates for my core positions, including recent news and a breakdown of the previous days macro economic data. Maybe a couple of interesting news bits and bobs for the general market sprinkled in as a bonus too.
Monday: CLSK and BTC
Tuesday: Tesla
Wednesday: SOFI
Thursday: PayPal
Monday – This weeks CleanSpark and Bitcoin Update
πΎπͺπ§π§ππ£π© π¬πππππ©ππ£π: 12.49% for CLSK β Donβt directly hold BTC in this portfolio but it drives price for my proxy trades.
πππ§πππ© π¬πππππ©ππ£π: 15% or less but may increase to benefit from short term moves.
ππͺπ£πππ’ππ£π©ππ‘π¨:
The good: Iβm not specifically trading this one based on its ββfairββ valuation like a lot of the stocks Iβm holding. Iβm using it as a leveraged BTC play. That said I do find CLSK the ββbest in classββ miner and its stock price depends a lot on the price of BTC. Thatβs a roundabout way of saying, should BTC peak in my expected $240K to $280k range, I would expect the ββfairββ value of CLSK to be between $45 and $120. Iβm sure you can appreciate that is a large range, so make sure you are paying attention to BTC price action.
The bad: The bond market is utilising an arbitrage play and driving short interest to silly highs.
Check out my detailed CleanSpark Thesis on my website for free here, just register for a free account: thecraftytrader.com/cleanspark-thesis/
πππππ£ππππ‘π¨: We trimmed a bunch at the resistance area back in Sept as we expected a pullback. Since then, we have fully scaled back in, and then some!
Price lost its key level of $13, and ideally now needs to hold $9. Price has diverged very far from the fundamentals of this company now as capitulation takes hold, and short interest rises. That said, institutions are still buying this and I still think CLSK will be a winner in the mining space.
ππ§ππ’π¨ ππ£π πΌπππ¨: Would like to hold most of my current position to at least $20 at the whopper volume shelf. Will probably trim out of some of my more recent trades that I opened on the pullback at this level though.
I have layered in and out of this stock multiple times and as a result most of the shares I own today are essentially βfreeββ, but even so I will likely take a big chunk of my position off the table as we approach the mid $40βs range (Around 75%), even though I think it will go higher. I talk about it all the time, Iβm not worried about timing tops and bottoms, I just want to get the meat of the move.
I also usually trim any large upside moves that are out of character and book some gains to add back later if we get a substantial drop. If that doesnβt happen, Iβm happy to hold my running position. Never be upset taking profits.
I do still have a few legacy positions on this that I will close out soon as they are too small and new copiers with small positions wonβt benefit from the small size.
βΆοΈππ€πͺπ©πͺππ: @Crafty_Trader
π: @Crafty_Trader
Tuesday – This Weeks Tesla Update
πΎπͺπ§π§ππ£π© π¬πππππ©ππ£π: 11.03%
πππ§πππ© π¬πππππ©ππ£π: 10% or less because itβs now at 2024 fair value.
ππͺπ£πππ’ππ£π©ππ‘π¨:
As a car company, price is elevated and over fair value. If we start to price in some of the future products though, things are still very attractive. It’s hard to build models when you don’t have much idea of prices etc. Really want to stress this is a more speculative position for me, and I’m betting Tesla will be very successful in at least 2 of its new sectors. Mainly I’m excited about energy storage, Semi’s, the compact car and FSD (Not including the Taxi)
Price action on this is front running the underlying fundamentals, so expect some volatility.
Check out my detailed Tesla Thesis on my website for free here:
πππππ£ππππ‘π¨: Price has been holding well, but I would prefer more of a drop in this one, so I can buy more shares. I did add at the recent low but would still like to see a further drop to the next support at the Fib line $365 and then the volume shelf at $343. Resistance is the blue Fib line at $435 and then the local high at $486.
ππ§ππ’π¨ ππ£π πΌπππ¨: Would love to add on any pull back towards the Fib level at $365, that might be a little ambitious though. Once we start to see some of these new products coming out with more pricing data, I will be able to build more accurate models instead of using a best guest method, which will give me confidence to know when I’m getting a good price and hold a larger position if appropriate.
βΆοΈππ€πͺπ©πͺππ: @Crafty_Trader
π: @Crafty_Trader
Wednesday – This Weeks SOFI Update
πΎπͺπ§π§ππ£π© π¬πππππ©ππ£π: 10.64%.
πππ§πππ© π¬πππππ©ππ£π: 10% or less because itβs now at 2024 fair value.
ππͺπ£πππ’ππ£π©ππ‘π¨:
The good: In my opinion Sofi is still very cheap over a multiyear timeframe but for now my fair value is $16 for what Iβm willing to pay this quarter but $21 is what Iβm looking at through 2025. Iβm not aiming for that right now though because I donβt want to add to my position after the large move up, Iβve got higher conviction plays with a better risk/reward balance that Iβm adding to now instead. The company has been able to pivot and show impressive growth during a rough macro environment. They even managed to move to profitability and have not only re-iterated that they will stay in the green, but they also raised guidance at each subsequent quarterly meeting. I do expect this number to keep getting raised as the company continues to expand its product offering into a rate environment that should help it flourish.
The bad: Short report from KBW with laughable content caused a sharp drop. We’ve since seen lots of upgrades, but they didn’t get the same level of publicity. Bad news sells, even if itβs wrong.
Check out my detailed Sofi Thesis on my website for free here:
πππππ£ππππ‘π¨: Sofi has had a nice 20% pullback and bounced back up from itβs FIB at $13.65, if we donβt follow through the next support below is the bull market support band which is in the volume gap at $12.71 (The low volume and thinning band wonβt provide much support though. Below it at the Fib level we have a much stronger support at $12. Resistance now sits at the local high of $17.16 and the Fib above that at $18.20.
ππ§ππ’π¨ ππ£π πΌπππ¨: Donβt currently plan to add to this unless we get a cooling from the technicals (The RSI has been very spicy for a while now), but I have raised my target for 2025 to $21. I am expecting to be lifting this target on a quarterly basis but over the short term I would love to add more if price breaks down.
I have closed all my legacy positions on this now. My equity grew so much that the small positions I started with became too small for new copiers to benefit from. Likely going to have to repeat this cycle in 2025 as I rotate my crypto profits into my Etoro account.
βΆοΈππ€πͺπ©πͺππ: @Crafty_Trader
π: @Crafty_Trader
Thursday – This Weeks PayPal Update
πΎπͺπ§π§ππ£π© π¬πππππ©ππ£π: 11.54% – Still wanting a pullback so I can add back to my position.
πππ§πππ© π¬πππππ©ππ£π: Max 20% when it pops as wonβt be trimming much on the final run to fair value.
ππͺπ£πππ’ππ£π©ππ‘π¨:
The good: I still think PayPal is cheap based on todayβs underlying fundamentals and even cheaper if we add in Fastlane and the ADβs business. The CEO has been a huge driving force in pushing this company forward and bringing skills he honed over at Intuit. Products have filtered down the chain at impressive speed and partnerships have been coming thick and fast. Right out of the gate he was able to stabilise the company and is now moving forward with plans that will be very beneficial to margins and the bottom line. The share buy backs have been an excellent use of their monster cash flow and Iβm very excited to see what else he has up his sleeve.
The bad: The company has a very bloated workforce, and trimming would be nice to see in the future. The new honey news is a concern but overall doesnβt affect the financials much, the direct impact will be to the brand.
Check out my detailed PayPal Thesis on my website for free here, just register for a free account:
πππππ£ππππ‘π¨: The bull market band is weak and bearish but did provide us with a very nice bounce zone as macro shifted in favour of financial companies. We have a few new gaps open below but typically PayPal doesnβt bother with closing them. Support below is at the $ $86.60 volume shelf and below that back at the bull market band again, sitting at $82, which is also at the start of the larger volume shelf. Resistance to the upside is the local top at $93.59 and slightly above that is $95.32 where two measured moves complete. Its possible price would blow past this to hit its head on $100 instead though. Thatβs a major psychological level.
ππ§ππ’π¨ ππ£π πΌπππ¨: I wonβt be trimming much of this until we get to my fair value at $124. Volatility is low on this asset so not worth trimming and adding much.
I also usually trim any large upside moves that are out of character and book some gains to add back later if we get a substantial drop. If that doesnβt happen, Iβm happy to hold my running position. Never be upset taking profits.
I did close some of my legacy positions on this. They were very small sub 0.2% weightings, so my average looks much worse than it is, since Iβve taken βββprofitsββ already.
βΆοΈππ€πͺπ©πͺππ: @Crafty_Trader
π: @Crafty_Trader
