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𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜: 6.98% for CLSK, 7.27% for BTC

𝙏𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙩 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜: 15% or less but may spike as the asset price rises.

𝙁𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙨:

The good: I’m not specifically trading this one based on its ‘’fair’’ valuation like a lot of the stocks I’m holding. I’m using it as a leveraged BTC play. That said I do find CLSK the ‘’best in class’’ miner and its stock price depends a lot on the price of BTC. That’s a roundabout way of saying, should BTC peak in my expected $204K to $280k range, I would expect the ‘’fair’’ value of CLSK to be between $45 and $120. I’m sure you can appreciate that is a large range, so make sure you are paying attention to BTC price action.

𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝𝙣𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙨:

Supports:

$8 has a strong volume shelf, $6.80 held price up for a few weeks, and below that we have $6. Would love to be able to more if press fell again, but wouldn’t be thrilled to see $6 again.

Resistance:

$9.30 is a strong volume shelf (The market makers also sit at $9 for max pain this week), $9.44 is the bull market support band.

Highlights:

Strong basing patterns going on here with support for golden bar flow marks, bottom catches and volume shelfs.

Concerns:

Market makers will want to push this one down over the short term.

𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙢𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘼𝙙𝙙𝙨:

Would like to hold most of my current position to at least $20 at the whopper volume shelf. I substantially lowered my cost basis on this over the last few months, which now sits at $10.25. A $20 trim area represents 95% upside for me, and a 159% rise from today’s price. Can’t complain about taking risk off the table in that area.

I have layered in and out of this stock multiple times and as a result most of the shares I own today are essentially ‘free’’, but even so I will likely take a big chunk of my position off the table as we approach the mid $20 to $30’s range (Around 75%), even though I think it will go higher if BTC goes parabolic. I talk about it all the time, I’m not worried about timing tops and bottoms, I just want to get the meat of the move.

I also usually trim any large upside moves that are out of character and book some gains to add back later if we get a substantial drop. If that doesn’t happen, I’m happy to hold my running position. Never be upset taking profits.

𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜: 5.16%

𝙏𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙩 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜: 10% but would love to rotate crypto gains into this one.

𝙁𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙨:

As a car company, price is elevated and over fair value. If we start to price in some of the future products though, things are still very attractive. It’s hard to build models when you don’t have much idea of prices etc. Really want to stress this is a more speculative position for me, and I’m betting Tesla will be very successful in at least 2 of its new sectors. Mainly I’m excited about energy storage, Semi’s, the compact car and FSD (Not including the Taxi)

Price action on this is front running the underlying fundamentals, so expect some volatility.

Check out my detailed Tesla Thesis on my website for free here:

https://thecraftytrader.com/tesla-thesis/

𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝𝙣𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙨:

Supports:

$220 at the triple bottom and nice volume shelf with a Fib level sitting right below at $213 which has provided a lot of historic support and resistance.

Resistance:

$250 at the large volume shelf, the recent high of $290 that pairs up with prior resistance/support levels could converge with the bull market support band… which is very chunky and will be tough to break. If we can get into that zone the air gap could push us quickly through it though.

Highlights:

Strong basing patterns going on here with support for golden bar flow marks, bottom catches and volume shelfs.

Concerns:

Earnings. I can’t look at a chart and tell you how earnings will go or how investors will react to it.

𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙢𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘼𝙙𝙙𝙨:

I’ve been adding a lot to this position and honestly, would love to add more. It has fallen a lot further than I had expected but that just meant more opportunity to buy at better prices. Once we start to see some of these new products coming out with more pricing data, I will be able to build more accurate models instead of using a best guess method, which will give me confidence to know when I’m getting a good price and hold a larger position if appropriate.

𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜: 6.64%.

𝙏𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙩 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜: 10% up to fair value, would love to rotate crypto gains into this one if it stays low.

𝙁𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙨:

The good:

In my opinion Sofi is still very cheap over a multiyear timeframe but for now my fair value is $16.30 but I’m willing to pay up to $21 into 2026. The company has been able to pivot and show impressive growth during a rough macro environment. They even managed to move to profitability and have not only re-iterated that they will stay in the green, but they also raised guidance at each subsequent quarterly meeting. I do expect this number to keep getting raised as the company continues to expand its product offering into a rate environment that should help it flourish.

The bad:

The Macro is driving this one. Don’t expect this to change any time soon.

Check out my detailed Sofi Thesis on my website for free here:

https://thecraftytrader.com/sofi-thesis/

𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝𝙣𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙨:

Supports:

$10.77 at the FIB, $10.22 at prior resistance/support and $9.90 at the FIB and volume shelf.

Resistance:

$11.55 at prior resistance, $12.04 at FIB level and $13:06 at prior support.

Highlights:

The bearish head and shoulders pattern we talked about in the last month did hit its price target at $10 and we’ve had a few bottom signals. I’ve been buying shares the whole way down so, silver lining.

Concerns:

Sentiment is cutting this one up, but it has enabled us to build up our share count again. Never thought I’d be able to trade a bank like this.

𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙢𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘼𝙙𝙙𝙨:

I’ve been adding to this one a lot and I’ve marked that on the chart, alongside my average cost.

𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜: 6.8%

𝙏𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙩 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜: Max 15% up to $124.

𝙁𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙨:

The good: I still think PayPal is cheap based on today’s underlying fundamentals and even cheaper if we add in Fastlane and the AD’s business. The CEO has been a huge driving force in pushing this company forward and bringing skills he honed over at Intuit. Products have filtered down the chain at impressive speed and partnerships have been coming thick and fast. Right out of the gate he was able to stabilise the company and is now moving forward with plans that will be very beneficial to margins and the bottom line. The share buy backs have been an excellent use of their monster cash flow and I’m very excited to see what else he has up his sleeve.

The bad: The company has a very bloated workforce, and trimming would be nice to see in the future. The new honey news is a concern but overall doesn’t affect the financials much, the direct impact will be to the brand.

Check out my detailed PayPal Thesis on my website for free here, just register for a free account:

https://thecraftytrader.com/paypal-thesis/

𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝𝙣𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙨:

Resistance: $64 to $65 will be a decent challenge to crack, a huge volume shelf and a gap fill will trigger some profit taking or investors using the opportunity to exit the stock. Above that $67 on historic support and the gap range its battled with many times will be a tough one unless Macro pushes it higher.

𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙢𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘼𝙙𝙙𝙨:

I won’t be trimming much of this until we get to my fair value at $124. Volatility is low on this asset so not worth trimming but I have added a lot to this on the swift drop.