Macro Economic Data Releases:
Monday
Not much to talk about today. Manufacturing low for Dallas, but it spends more time in contraction than in expansion these days anyway. The print is within it’s averages.
Tuesday
Dallas service data, revenue on the up and up. Love to see that. General business activity came in at -0.1%. Looks bad on the face of it but its setting a nice consistent improvement trend. Given the Macro outlook lately, i wonder if the trend will break soon.
We also got some jobs data today. Not much change on the job openings front and quits way down. Suggesting people are bucking in for a bumpy ride.
Consumer confidence up again though. Don’t know how they source their data though cause this is very different from what we have been hearing on earnings calls lately.
Wednesday
The Fed Interest Rate Decision was the topic of the data, with the market still not that interested in housing data.
Unsurprisingly we got a pause and the conference leant more to the dovish side. Nothing wild or out of the left field was rocking things.
We also got ADP data which came in poor. Giving us a warning what was coming.
Thursday
More jobs data with US employers announcing 25,855 job cuts in July 2024, the lowest level in a year. Technology still leading the charge but we know why. They got way to bloated during an aggressive growth cycle and need to trim fat.
Initial jobless claims and continuing both edging higher. More people losing their jobs and not getting back in the work force. A worrying trend.
The Fed balance sheet run off continues, so they at least don’t see an immediate risk to the economy.
Friday
Well, the jobs data today really made the market do a doo doo.
We have the unemployment rate accelerating higher. On the last print no one seemed concerned we hit 4.1% and I even pointed out the trend was looking VERY worrying for the next one coming in even higher. Which it did…. With a notable jump that outpaced the existing trend. This is very worrying for next months print.
Pair this with the down trending Non Farm Payrolls data and it’s a bit of a disaster. What makes this data worse is that every recent month has had significant downgrades. If this trend continues, we’ll be in negative territory before you can say ”recession”.
The data today paired with a less than stellar earnings season so far has put a lot of pressure on the market in the near term. Earnings haven’t been bad, just not good enough to justify some of the premiums of the stocks holding up the market. Big tech is already starting to look attractive at these levels again though.
Worrying Data:
We do have some data that is worrying for inflation. Such as Containerized freight still being spicy. As you can see in the charts below, it’s starting to set a worrying trend towards the Covid highs. I would like to see this start to roll over but this is heavily affected by the ever evolving situation in the red sea. With the capacity squeeze still fresh on everyone’s minds, its seem shippers are willing to start scaling up now in preparation for peak season in Q3. Price is stabilising but I would prefer to see it come down more, even after the drop this week.
The Dollar
Every week we talk about how the market struggles with a strong dollar, especially international and small companies. Support broke and we smash down to the next key area. Love it. It’s a pretty bearish looking candle too so I would love to see some follow through, but a bounce in this area shouldn’t be a shock as there is a lot of historic support.
Oil
We’ve talked about OIL still looking bearish despite the breakout from the wedge. There was a lot of of resistance confluence that made it hard for it to push up. After price moved nicely back into its pattern and spent some time riding the golden fib. My wish did come true, and price fell from support. The next area (Purple trend line) is going to be tougher to drop below but ill be VERY happy if it does. The golden fib level will also offer decent resistance. Big picture, this $77.65 to $73.31 range is going to be on a lot of peoples radar for breakout trading.
Commodities
Lithium down again this week, noice.
Agriculture has been a big driver of inflation, it influences a large part of the chain and it’s always good to see most prices falling. Still some sticking areas but for the most part this week was worst for butter.
You can check out the rest of the commodities here.
CME Interest Rate Probabilities
After the bad jobs data the market is starting to price in greater chances of a 50bps cut and zero chance of a pause. You can check the live data here.
Truflation
My go to source as a live indicator for inflation data. The government data is lagging in nature and often off the mark when it comes to honest reporting. I have a post here that explains more about why I like this tool.
After a large drop it’s no surprise to see a tick up but still easily under the 2% target the government wants to see.
Fear and Greed Index
It’s healthy for a market to drop to fear every so often. The market takes the lift down, and the escalators back up so I wouldn’t be shocked to see the market drop more Monday and get us to extreme fear before we start to grind back up.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index
Can bet a whole heap of leveraged long positions got liquidated last week…
Other News and Data:
Tech has had a large pull back, typically we only see a -10% ish once a year. With the odds of a 20% pullback shrinking to a 5 year average. So the TQQQ is starting to look pretty tasty for me as a shorter timeframe swing trade. I started a small position on the bull market band bounce and added more at this historic resistance level. I’ll be adding more if this continues to fall. I don’t like to end up holding the mag 7 for long periods of time, that’s what my pension fund does so it would be silly to have 2 portfolios holding the same assets, using the same strat 🤣. So I’m happy taking a leveraged swing trade. No fancy TP on it. 50% out when we get a new 52 week high on the TQQQ, another 25% when we go blue sky and the rest gets trimmed into upside weakness. The TQQQ does look like its getting the mother of all cup and handle patterns…
New Website Content and Updates
- End Of Week Macro Economic and News Wrap Up 02/08/2024
- Chart Updates for Top Stocks in My Portfolio 02/08/2024
- Portfolio tracker updated
- Tesla Q2 earnings updated
- SOFI Q2 earnings updated
- PayPal Q2 earnings updated
- Added a zoom feature to all future images with small print for easier viewing.
- Started doing daily content videos in short form for YouTube.
- Check out this weeks daily chart updates here
Pre-warning – I do have another holiday coming up soon, for a week. I’m debating if I will take my laptop or not.
YouTube and the Delay getting data out
I’ve been listening to what you have had to say about my videos and have implemented a few of your suggestions this week. You will find the current format below:
Monday: Macro update and Chart update videos will be posted Monday at 3:15pm on a schedule.
The rest of the week I will set aside time to put up a short clip looking at the charts for 1 of my core stocks and then take a look at their short timeframe open options interest. These will also be posted at 3:15 on a schedule.
Tuesday: Tesla
Wednesday: SoFi
Thursday: PayPal
Friday: CleanSpark and Bitcoin
I still have a life and may not always be on time. I do all this for free, so please bear that in mind before getting to upset about any delays.
