In this post I’ll take a look into the charts for my top positions that are over 10% or more in weighting. I’ll also take a look at BTC, as this underlying asset actually affects around 35% of my Etoro portfolio due to proxy trades. I’ll provide updates on my positions in them regarding both trims/adds and take look into the open options interest for a deeper a look at what the market is expecting.
A lot of people believe TA has no place in an investors arsenal. Maybe they are right! But personally, if I can see where the sticking points are in price, I know that the world isn’t ending when we have a pullback, which for a long term investor, would make an excellent DCA level. So whilst I don’t think you need to trade these levels, I do think it develops an understanding of price action that can help you filter out noise and panic.
SoFi, Tesla, CleanSpark and PayPal are currently the only 10%+ positions in my portfolio.
SoFi
Daily: We talked last week about it not getting a pullback as large as we would have expected, well it turns out timing was a little off and we had the follow through this week. Beautiful bounce at the bull market band and historical resistance level for a nice pop back to the volume shelf. I still wouldn’t have been too shocked to see price back test the blue trend line this week since the overall sentiment around Sofi is still very negative going into earnings. The short interest on this one could cause a squeeze, but we could also get some double downs.
The golden cross is expanding nicely and whales are now holding more than 50% so I like seeing that. The RSI still has a bunch of room too.
Weekly: We also mentioned last week that the large wick wasn’t as threatening as it seemed, which turned out to be the case since we had a wick down in the opposite direction this week. The death cross is tightening too and we have a very recent golden bar on the flow with a flat RSI.
The technicals look great still, but with earnings upcoming we need some good news. Remember fundamentals always over rise technicals to some degree. If a chart looks bullish as heck, bad news will make it tank, even if it will see stop at resistance points, it could blow past some.
Adding: I did end up pushing my weighting back over 10% in preparation for this earnings call.
Trimming: I still think this is a cheap stock and I would like to hold the majority of my position to at least a new 52 week high, at around $12.
Options – Short: Earnings week has a nice support at $7, but nothing crazy to the upside. $8’s probably the one to beat. The week after earnings though, we get a notable jump. Hardly no put action but a large gathering of strikes in the $10 range. Would expect that to be a very strong resistance area.
Options – Long: ’25 is $10 and $15 still, with little in the way of negative bets. ’26 is pretty much the same but $15 moves up to $20 now. As I’ve said before, probably not a coincidence that the market is expecting this to go higher after the time period we are expecting rate cuts.
Tesla
Daily: Last week we talked about the $215 level being a target for Tesla at the volume shelf. I would actually love to see it break that level and close that gap below. There’s a bunch of confluence for support below that. I think sub $200 would be a challenge but I would gladly be a buyer.
RSI is neutral, whales washed out a little but not too much so, still over 50%.
Weekly: There’s been a big sell off, but nothing too alarming. Price is literally at a level last seen a whole 4 weeks ago. RSI is flat with whales over 50% and a fresh golden cross on the deck. Neither chart looks super bearish to me, which makes me sad because I was hoping for more downside.
Trimming: Last week I actually took around 15% of my Tesla position off the table. I wasn’t confident earnings would be received well, especially given the large moves during the prior few weeks. Nice to say I made the right call.
Adding: I’m was a happy buyer on the large pullback driven by earnings. I had a nibble at the open but would like to buy a much larger chunk back at the gap fill @$213 and then more @$203 for the bull market band.
Options – Short: Strong support at $180, the volume in this area has dropped off a lot lately, suggesting people have taken profits. Resistance has popped up at $235, suggesting people expect a short term price bounce. This will be a really strong level of resistance. The following weeks show a lot of variation in strikes, gonna be some fun volatility by the looks of it.
Options – Long: For ’25 we have $300 and $400 with a splash at $500 and $600 (So a pretty wide range) with regular resistance below it. There’s a lot of bearish strikes below us but not real confluence, just a general buck shot. First strong resistance is $200. ’26 pretty much the same but a huge uptick in $500 and $510. So the market looks a lot more bullish on Tesla for 2026 than it does in 2025.
PayPal
Still range bound, shocking news.
Daily: After looking promising that it would hold back over the black trend line, price decided it couldn’t be bothered to stay over the line and dropped back down to the historical red support line/volume shelf. Would be disappointing for price to drop below that level again but given how everyone still doesn’t know how to look at PayPal’s fundamentals, it’s not entirely impossible. Next support below that is $55. RSI is a little oversold and the death cross is back in expansion, which doesn’t look great. We do have a golden bar on the flow, but as a solo indicator, it doesn’t inspire much confidence.
The bull market support band level was too much for price to break and we’ve pulled back down to the black trend line. We have broken below but have a nice wick up, so it doesn’t look like it wants to stay down. We have that nice volume shelf support below as back up too. RSI is neutral and we got a little overbought on the MCDX+.
The chart is leaning more bearish not but giving some mixed signals.
Weekly: Still in the range… Earnings needs to light a fire under this bad boy.
Adding: I’m not buying anymore shares as I’m very overweight in this one already.
Trimming: I’ve held this for so long, I’ll likely go ahead and hold until it gets back to it’s fair value, around $100. So it will be rather large at some point in 2025 or 2026, but I’m confident in my thesis on this one. I will need to consolidate positions when we finally do start heading in the right direction though. I have lots of old legacy positions open from when my account was much smaller that need consolidating so smaller copy traders can capture all the trades going forward.
Options – Short: Recently started to see more strikes hitting the tape for $64 and $69 that will be resistance for earnings. Not too much put interested. The week after earnings has huge volume at $50… weird. I have no explanation for that haha
Options – Long: First tiny resistance is $100 but we have some whoppers at $140 and $145 and hardly anyone interested in puts. for 2025. ’26 resistance is $62… Also weird.
CleanSpark
Daily: The range continues, it’s been in play for a while now. I’ve had some nice swings on it so I cant really complain. RSI is flat, Flow is flat, on the MCDX+ we recently got a golden cross, nicely bullish sign. We’re above the volume shelf too, which I love. Support below the shelf is the bottom of the bband and then $15ish. $20 is still going to be a strong level to break through.
Weekly: It looks a lot better on the weekly. That long range has built out this monster volume shelf that could be an insane launch pad. Looks like a sexy flag. Last time there was a shelf like this price made some killer upside moves. Retail is dabbling, but for the most part the big boys hold the cards here still.
Adding: I’m now back at a 10% weighting so don’t plan to add.
Trimming: Will trim a little at $24, mainly because I added during the last pullback and want to trim of that ”excess fat”. $28.50 is my next trim area at the golden fib line.
Options- Short: $18 and $20 are next weeks targets with $15 as a really nice support for the following week.
Remember CLSK has it’s own fundamentals and doesn’t just trade with BTC. Whilst the market doesn’t necessarily move price based on their earnings or balance sheet too much, it will move based on their growth plans and any commentary they make on how things are going. There should be no big shocks though as the miners release metrics every month regarding production and holdings etc.
Options – Long: I wouldn’t use the long dated options data for any miner type company as the cycle peak should have passed by then. You shouldn’t directly hold any long term miners at this point either… way too much downside risk.
Bitcoin
Daily: The BTC conference wasn’t the most exciting event on earth. I didn’t listen to much of it live other than Trump’s speech but it was pretty much more of the same. Price is pushing up against that purple trend line though. Would love to see it break over that and get some fomo momentum going. RSI is getting warm but BTC doesn’t really care about that.
Weekly: It would be great to see price have a pump over the purple trend line and stick above the blue Fib line. This gives us a great launch pad spot.
Adding: I have now resumed my regular plan of only buying weekly, instead of twice weekly.
Trimming: I’m not trimming out of BTC until we are at least over $100k. Still adjusting my exit strategy given the slow start to the cycle.
You can check out my end of week Macro Economic and News Wrap Up post and video here.
