In this post I’ll take a look into the charts for my top positions that are over 10% or more in weighting. I’ll also take a look at BTC, as this underlying asset actually affects around 35% of my Etoro portfolio due to proxy trades. I’ll provide updates on my positions in them regarding both trims/adds and take look into the open options interest for a deeper a look at what the market is expecting.
SoFi, Tesla, CleanSpark and PayPal are currently the only 10%+ positions in my portfolio.
SoFi
Are we shocked there’s been a pullback right at a historic resistance level? Absolutely not. From a technical perspective this should be expected.
A lot of people believe TA has no place in an investors arsenal. Maybe they are right! But personally, if I can see where the sticking points are in price, I know that the world isn’t ending when we have a pullback like this. I can also see that we have a new higher high, which is a great indicator for a reversal, and were above the bull market band. So whilst I don’t think you need to trade these levels, I do think it develops an understanding of price action that can help you filter out noise and panic.
Daily: Didn’t get as large of a pull back as was possible, so there could be more downside. Price seems to have stuck on the historical support level/ volume shelf, with a nice indecisive candle. Wouldn’t be surprised to see price grind along this level until earnings. If we do dip below, the bull market band will offer nice support. Resistance above is the same resistance line, marked in red at $7.90 and then $8 above that. I LOVE that the MCDX+ moving averages are pinching together and look like they want to confirm a bullish cross. Noice. Retail has crept in a little and the whales are sill below 50%, so definitely so opportunity there for the big boys to get this moving if they so please. Flow has slowed but so has selling volume/pressure.
Weekly: Again on the weekly we can see price struggling with a few areas. $7.90 and $7.50 and we closed bang on the weekly volume shelf. Nothing above that wick scares me? It does make me think that if earnings doesn’t create a pop we will see downside action in the short term though. $6.44 is strong support but a drop below that could be spicy. Again on the MCDX+ we see an incoming golden cross, and oversold marker and golden buy signal on the Flow oscillator.
The technicals look great, but with earnings upcoming we need some good news. Remember fundamentals always over rise technicals to some degree. If a chart looks bullish as heck, bad news will make it tank, even if it will see stop at resistance points, it could blow past some.
Adding: My weighting has dropped due to some trimming but I’m not adding back. Both because If earnings goes well it should be over 10% naturally and if they are bad, I have some cash to bolster it with.
Trimming: I still think this is a cheap stock and I did trim a bunch of positions during the bull market this week. The trims were NOT related to target prices in my core stocks but just for a little rebalancing/consolidating in my overall portfolio.
Swing Trade: Not currently swing trading on Etoro as I’m moving the account to a new broker due to fee structure changes, and lack of clarification on timelines for a rollout to the rest of their clients and if the large spreads will get a trim. This applies to all my swing trades. I will still mark any trades I’m taking on the charts in green boxes but will refrain from commenting on them as per PI policy, I’m not allowed to promote other brokers. The fees aren’t an issue themselves, its purely that with the large spread Etoro has, the strategy is not as optimised as it is with another broker.
Options – Short: Looking a week ahead to their earnings the sentiment looks fairly bullish with more open interest, but not overly so. Sticking areas will be $7, $7.5 and $8. No shock there.
Options – Long: ’25 is $10 and $15 still, with little in the way of negative bets. ’26 is pretty much the same but $15 moves up to $20 now. As I’ve said before, probably not a coincidence that the market is expecting this to go higher after the time period we are expecting rate cuts.
Tesla
Daily: Tesla is holding very well afters it’s boom week. I know it doesn’t feel like it since its trading in a very volatile 10% range. Price hit exactly the level I had marked to rebuy the shares I had sold for a 2nd time, but I actually think we could get more of a sell off before earnings on Tuesday as people start to get nervous. Support below is the diagonal trend line in black and the next volume shelf at $215. I would actually love to see that level again and close that gap below.
MCDX+ is overbought but the RSI has cooled nicely. We are VERY high above the bull market band so unless earnings is good. Definitely down. Upside targets are… anywhere up to $265 š Lots of resistance confluence in this area, but a nice break over it would allow us to grind that level as support as other indicators cooled off and the bband caught up.
Weekly: What do you know? That weekly ”indecision” candle was followed by another candle that neither made a new high or low. The golden cross with the moving averages separating further is still expanding and whales are holding the fort. Love to see that. Flow is looking very good and there’s still room for some whales to come party. Retail now out. We do have a bearish tweezer top though as as I mentioned in the daily breakdown above, price action seems like it wants more downside but fundamentals will dictate this.
Trimming: I actually ended up taking around 15% of my Tesla position off the table. I’m no confident earnings will be perceived as good as people are still only pricing them as a car company. Energy could get people excited but I just don’t feel like the market sees what I see yet. So now I have some spare cash to buy any drops in price.
Adding: I mentioned it above. I’m a very happy buyer on any large pullback driven by earnings. Would love to see $215 but would start adding on the black trend line.
Options – Short: If we look to their earnings week. Overwhelmingly bearish sentiment with a massive strike price of $180. So the market definitely thinks this is going down. To the upside, $300 is your sticking area. Would be fun to see it rocket to that area and then drop back to $260 and confirm support. Either way, up or down, I’m happy with this one.
Options – Long: For ’25 we have $300 and $400 with a splash at $500 and $600 (So a pretty wide range) with regular resistance below it. There’s a lot of bearish strikes below us but not real confluence, just a general buck shot. First strong resistance is $200. ’26 pretty much the same but a huge uptick in $500 and $510. So the market looks a lot more bullish on Tesla for 2026 than it does in 2025.
PayPal
Still range bound, but reacted well to the good CPI print and then trended down again.
Daily: The bull market support band level was too much for price to break and we’ve pulled back down to the black trend line. We have broken below but have a nice wick up, so it doesn’t look like it wants to stay down. We have that nice volume shelf support below as back up too. RSI is neutral and we got a little overbought on the MCDX+.
The chart looks more neutral than bearish, basically boring.
Weekly: Still in the range… Earnings needs to light a fire under this bad boy.
Adding: Iām not buying anymore shares as Iām very overweight in this one already.
Trimming: I’ve held this for so long, I’ll likely go ahead and hold until it gets back to it’s fair value, around $100. So it will be rather large at some point in 2025 or 2026, but I’m confident in my thesis on this one. I will need to consolidate positions when we finally do start heading in the right direction though. I have lots of old legacy positions open from when my account was much smaller that need consolidating so smaller copy traders can capture all the trades going forward.
Options – Short: Strong support is pretty much where were at now and then to $56 the week after for their earnings report. Upside targets don’t change much either, currently a scatter shop all the way to $70. So no one expects anything exciting to come from this earnings.
Options – Long: First tiny resistance is $100 but we have some whoppers at $140 and $145 and hardly anyone interested in puts. for 2025. ’26 resistance is $95, so not as much confidence out that far or just people expecting the price to be more accurately reflective of its value with less upside potential.
CleanSpark
Here’s the chart from last week where i had a guess what price action would be…
And here’s this weeks chart š¤ Not bad really, price got stuck exactly where I thought it would. Price did pull back to the level below the yellow line but halted at the bband. I probably should have accounted more for panic sellers kicking in after initial profit taking rolled out. Whilst it’s fun to test ourselves like this, it does give us some valuable insight and builds a sense of trust in our own decision making. Go ahead, start having a fun play on charts and see how well you do.
Daily: The range continues, it’s been in play for a while now. I’ve had some nice swings on it so I cant really complain. RSI is flat, Flow is flat, MCDX+ moving averages have been flat but starting to pinch together still so we can close that death cross. We’re above the volume shelf now which I love. Support below the shelf is the bottom of the bband and then $15ish.
Weekly: It looks a lot better on the weekly. That long range has built out this monster volume shelf that could be an insane launch pad. Looks like a sexy flag. Last time there was a shelf like this price made some killer upside moves. Retail is dabbling, but for the most part the big boys hold the cards here still.
Adding: I’ve added more to this on the last pullback and I’m now overweight at 11%.
Trimming: Will trim a little at $24, mainly because I added during the last pullback and want to trim of that ”excess fat”. $28.50 is my next trim area at the golden fib line.
Options- Short: $18 and $19 are next weeks targets but for their earnings week in august price interest jumps to $20 and $23.
Remember CLSK has it’s own fundamentals and doesn’t just trade with BTC. Whilst the market doesn’t necessarily move price based on their earnings or balance sheet too much, it will move based on their growth plans and any commentary they make on how things are going. There should be no big shocks though as the miners release metrics every month regarding production and holdings etc.
Options – Long: I wouldn’t use the long dated options data for any miner type company as the cycle peak should have passed by then. You shouldn’t directly hold any long term miners at this point either… way too much downside risk.
Bitcoin
With Germany gone, BTC has had a monster rally. We did end up having the weekend pump as I as hoping for, which continue through the week with some rest days.
The death cross is long gone and the golden cross is expanding. I was buying heavily on that dip and I’m not sure there will be another chance like it to do so. That said, a pullback after such a large run would be nice. Over the weekend it would be great to see us have a small pump over the yellow line and stick at the blue Fib line. This gives us a great area to bounce around in and build up energy to break out of the flag. I think when that level is breached we could have some volcanic moves on our hands.
Adding: I have now resumed my regular plan of only buying weekly, instead of twice weekly.
Trimming: I’m not trimming out of BTC until we are at least over $100k. Still adjusting my exit strategy given the slow start to the cycle.
You can check out my end of week Macro Economic and News Wrap Up post and video here.
