Venture Global (NYSE: VG) has seen extreme volatility and a significant upward trend over the last few days (early March 2026) due to a combination of a major legal victory, a geopolitical supply shock, and a strong quarterly earnings report.
The stock surged approximately 17% in premarket trading on Tuesday, March 3, and has gained over 80% since the start of the year.
1. Major Legal Victory (Shell Arbitration)
The most significant driver this week was a New York State Supreme Court ruling on March 2–3. I actually thought this would get dragged out a lot further!
The Ruling: Justice Joel Cohen rejected Shell’s bid to overturn a prior arbitration award that favoured Venture Global.
The Context: Shell (along with BP and Repsol) had accused Venture Global of “wrongful profiteering” by selling LNG on the spot market for higher prices rather than honouring long-term contracts.
Market Impact: Analysts from UBS and Goldman Sachs noted that the ruling removes a major “arbitration overhang” that had been depressing the stock price, and for once, I’m inclined to agree with them. The court’s refusal to allow further evidence-gathering effectively ends Shell’s challenge on this front.
2. Geopolitical Conflict & LNG Price Spike
The stock’s rally on Monday, March 2, was heavily influenced by the outbreak of war involving Iran over the weekend.
Supply Shutdown: Qatar reportedly shut down its LNG export facilities due to the conflict, causing international LNG prices to spike.
The “US Alternative”: As a major U.S.-based exporter, Venture Global is seen as a primary beneficiary of higher global gas prices and the urgent need for non-Middle Eastern supply.
This is especially impactful for VG as they love their SPOT deals.
3. Q4 2025 Earnings & New Contracts
On March 2, Venture Global reported fourth-quarter results that beat analyst expectations:
Earnings Beat: The company reported EPS of $0.41, surpassing the estimate of $0.35.
Growth: Revenue grew nearly 193% year-over-year to $4.45 billion, driven by massive increases in cargo exports from its Plaquemine’s facility.
New Deals: The company announced a new 5-year supply agreement with Trafigura and a 20-year partnership with Hanwha Aerospace, signalling continued demand for its capacity.
4. Dividend Announcement
Adding to the positive sentiment, on March 3, Venture Global’s board declared its cash dividend of $0.018 per share, payable on March 31, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 16. I don’t place too much weight in this but it’s nice to have. I expect this to be a more profitable perk several years down the road when the company throws off so much cash it just doesn’t know what to do with it.
My plan:
While the stock flew following the Shell news, it saw some intraday rejection as traders no doubt took profits, but it remains at its highest levels since late 2025. This is still a multi year position for me so I have no plans to sell in the near term but it does appear as though the narrative is changing again for the better on this one, much sooner than i was expecting!
That makes a nice change!
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@JodySlaney with CISI Lvl 3 Wealth & Investment Management
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