1. Inflation (Core PCE & PCE) – broadly in line, moving in the right direction
Core PCE MoM: 0.2% (same as previous, matching consensus)
PCE MoM: 0.3% (same as previous, matching consensus)
Core PCE YoY: 2.8% (down from 2.9%)
PCE YoY: 2.8% (up slightly from 2.7%)
Meaning:
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Inflation isn’t accelerating.
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The YoY core figure is ticking down, which is what the Fed watches most.
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Everything is within expectations, avoiding negative surprises.
Market impact:
Stable-to-cooling inflation is supportive for equities, because it keeps the path open for easier policy.
2. Consumer sentiment – improving
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 53.3 vs 51.0 prior, and above consensus (52)
Meaning:
Households feel slightly better about the economy.
This matters because sentiment influences spending resilience.
Market impact:
A sentiment beat is positive for risk appetite.
3. Spending and income – steady, not overheating
Personal Income MoM: 0.4% (unchanged from prior)
Personal Spending MoM: 0.3% (slightly below prior 0.5%, but exactly on consensus)
Meaning:
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Income growth remains stable.
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Spending cooled slightly but is still growing, a “soft landing” pattern.
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No signs of a consumer collapse, but no overheating either.
Market impact:
This balance is constructive: enough demand to support earnings, without adding inflation pressure.
4. Used car prices – rebound, but minor in the macro picture
Used Car Prices MoM: +1.3% (big swing from –2%)
Used Car Prices YoY: 0%
Meaning:
A one-month rebound doesn’t materially influence PCE or CPI trends.
The YoY figure is flat, so there’s no structural inflation push here.
Market impact:
Neutral. Not large enough to change inflation expectations.
Overall conclusion: This is good news for the stock market.
The data is:
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In-line or better than expected
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Showing cooling core inflation
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Showing firmer sentiment
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Showing steady, sustainable consumer activity
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Avoiding any surprise that would force markets to price in extra tightening
This combination supports the soft-landing narrative and reduces policy risk, both positive for equities.
Yay!